Even before things came to this, everyone knew quite well that the 2024 presidential elections were going to be nothing like we had ever seen before. But when John F. Kennedy Jr., a scion of the famous house of Kennedy, threw his hat in the ring in April 2023, he added further chaos to what was already a very volatile situation. In early October of the same year, the renowned environmental lawyer and writer spiced things up even more by deciding to break out of the Democratic Party and run the presidential race as an independent.
Now, in the 246 years of the existence of the United States of America, there have only been 10 presidents who were neither Democrats nor Republicans. The direct implication of this for the John F. Kennedy race is that his chances of seeing that all the way through to the end are pretty slim. Having established that, it would be extremely foolish to imply that he won’t sway the coming election, and appreciably at that, too.
To be clear, the emergence of a figure as prominent as a Kennedy on the presidential election scene bodes ill for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the two frontrunners in this race. The reason for this is ultimately simple; it gives members of the electorate who are tired of the two-party system in the country a viable alternative they can vote for. That being said, one candidate will likely find it relatively easier to reach their goal, thanks to the emergence of Kennedy. That person is none other than Trump.
There are several reasons why Kennedy’s increased stock as a potential president works in the favor of the one-time POTUS. For one thing, up until a few months ago, John F. Kennedy Jr. was a member of the Democratic Party himself. When he pulled out, he inevitably left with a sizable, if small number of the party’s loyalists. These are people whose votes would’ve gone to Biden otherwise.
The biggest evidence of this was discovered in a Quinnipiac poll, which showed Biden leading the charge over Trump by 49.0 to 46.0 percent before JFK Jr. entered the scene. However, with the massive amount of momentum that he has gained in such a short time, the polls have begun reflecting something else. As an example, a poll by RealClearPolitics shows Trump leading Biden with a 46.6 to 45.0 in a head-to-head race. However, when that race was split three ways, that figure changed to 40.7 to 35.3 percent in favor of Trump, as Kennedy claimed a not-insignificant 12.3 percent.
Perhaps what makes this fact all the more glaring is how Trump’s chances significantly improved in battleground states, thanks in no small part to the antics of Kennedy. For instance, in Arizona, support for Trump surged from 5.2 percent to 6.0 percent. The needle moved from 0.2 to 2.0 percent in Pennsylvania. Other states like Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin saw growths of 5.2 to 74 percent, 3.0 to 6.0 percent, 4.4 to 6.7 percent, 0.8 to 2.7 percent, respectively. Only Michigan showed a slight dip in Trump’s support rating from 3.5 to 2.8 percent, and this was when every other candidate in the race was introduced to the mix.
There are a couple of other ways that the Kennedy presence has an ultimately detrimental effect on Harris' bid for election. One such way is the fact that the man took a crucial financier and stronghold of the Democratic Party when he named Nicole Shanahan, a California-based tech entrepreneur as his running mate in March. As a high-profile democrat herself, she had a large following decamp with her as well. What’s more, her presence in the campaign will likely lure more progressive-minded voters – people who would have otherwise voted for Harris – to the Kennedy side.
How far that momentum can carry Kennedy is certainly debatable, but what’s not in question is that it hurts Harris and it makes Trump’s job much, much easier.
Perhaps the biggest nail in the coffin for Harris here would be how much ballot access Kennedy will be able to gain. Laborious and expensive as the process is known to be, a report that appeared in Politico says, “His (Kennedy’s) campaign is officially on the ballot in one state so far — Utah. But it says it has collected enough signatures to also qualify in Nevada, Hawaii and New Hampshire. American Values 2024, a pro-Kennedy super PAC, says it has collected enough signatures to get him on the ballot in Michigan, South Carolina, Arizona and Georgia.”
All of this ultimately spells further doom for Harris while likely putting a smile on Donald Trump’s face.
Nation-wide displeasure with the performance of the Biden/Harris administration – a fairly common enough sentiment for incumbent administrations – always meant that Trump would have a slight advantage over the sitting president. However, the presence of Kennedy in this election has tipped the scales further in favor of the Republicans.
